MMRE

Performance & Potential

Where each position stands — and where we believe it can go.

A transparent view of our portfolio: capital at work today, and the conservative, base, and bull outcomes underwriting our continued conviction — with the assumption behind each.

Portfolio totals

Unrealized gain

+$3,388,008 (+135%)

on $2,518,000 invested

$2,518,000

Capital Invested

$5,906,008

Current Value

$4,865,015

Conservative

$10,938,824

Base Case

$21,727,647

Bull Case

Bull-case totals assume every thesis lands at once. They will not all co-occur, so read the bull total as a ceiling, not a forecast.

Where the upside is concentrated

  1. 1Coterie+$2,880,000
  2. 2Figure AI+$2,415,842
  3. 3Hark AI+$1,800,000
  4. 4Scout AI+$1,560,000
  5. 5Jeeter+$1,514,706

Ranked by bull-case dollar upside over current value.

Potential by position

Consumer / Baby Care

Coterie

MOIC

4.0x

Current
$1.6M
Conservative
$1.3M
Base
$2.3M
Bull
$4.5M

Assumptions

Conservative
Earnouts pay at the low tiers; IPO delayed with no premium on the Mammoth stock (3.1x)
Base
Mid-tier earnouts; Mammoth lists near $5B, lifting the stock component (5.8x)
Bull
Top-tier earnouts paid in full; Mammoth lists at $8B+ (11.2x)

Base upside

1.5x

Bull upside

2.8x

Conviction

Driver:
Acquired by Mammoth Brands (Harry's parent) for $1B+ in Dec 2025; $503K first distribution received; cash, Mammoth stock and EBITDA earnouts through 2028; a Mammoth IPO is the multiplier
Risk:
Earnout tiers and IPO timing; ~40% of proceeds paid in Mammoth stock; softness at Mammoth's other brands could delay the IPO

Latest catalystIs Coterie's new training diaper worth the splurge? We put it to the test - ReviewedAugust 27, 2026

Real Estate

Stoneweg Fund

MOIC

1.0x

Current
$200K
Conservative
$260K
Base
$400K
Bull
$520K

Assumptions

Conservative
Higher-for-longer rates and Sunbelt insurance costs cap it at 1.3x net
Base
27% net IRR track record compounds through 2027; ~2.0x net
Bull
Rate cuts lift exit values; 2.6x net on the US fund

Base upside

2.0x

Bull upside

2.6x

Conviction

Driver:
~27% net IRR across 40 exits with zero realized losses; workforce housing undersupplied; direct operator relationship
Risk:
Rate environment; insurance costs

Latest catalystStoneweg Europe Stapled Trust proposes internalisation of managers - The Business TimesSeptember 28, 2026

Cannabis

Jeeter

MOIC

1.0x

Current
$250K
Conservative
$441.2K
Base
$882.4K
Bull
$1.8M

Assumptions

Conservative
Rescheduling stalls; exit near $750M on cannabis multiples (1.8x)
Base
NY and MA expansion carries it to ~$1.5B on 56% GM retail momentum (3.5x)
Bull
Federal rescheduling brings alcohol-comp multiples; $3B+ for the #1 preroll (7.1x)

Base upside

3.5x

Bull upside

7.1x

Conviction

Driver:
#1 preroll globally; $482M retail rev; 56% GM; alcohol-comp upside if legalized
Risk:
Federal illegality; 280E; EBITDA growth lag (3% on 8% rev growth); leverage 4.1x

Latest catalystKing City Gardens announces exclusive partnership to bring Jeeter to Ohio - MMJDailyJuly 15, 2026

Deep Tech / Robotics

Figure AI

MOIC

15.4x

Current
$1.5M
Conservative
$792.1K
Base
$2M
Bull
$4M

Assumptions

Conservative
Humanoid risk reprices; the $39B mark halves to ~$20B — still ~7.9x the Series B entry
Base
Next round or IPO at ~$50B within 18 months as LOIs convert to contracts
Bull
~$100B leader outcome on the OpenAI/SpaceX secondary trajectory

Base upside

1.3x

Bull upside

2.6x

Conviction

Driver:
15.4x already; ~740 robots deployed Jun 2026 at 1/hr production; $14B LOI pipeline thru 2029 (Amazon, Mercedes); BMW + Catalyst Brands live
Risk:
Secondaries imply $27-34B vs the $39B round (12-32% haircut to realizable value); X Square benchmark pressure; Tesla competition; LOIs are not contracts

Latest catalystFigure AI Loan Assistant Targets Abandonment & Mortgage Growth - HousingWireOctober 13, 2026

Deep Tech / AI

Hark AI

MOIC

1.0x

Current
$200K
Conservative
$200K
Base
$600K
Bull
$2M

Assumptions

Conservative
Recap or secondary near entry; syndicate and Adcock capital floor it — a soft floor, pre-product hardware can go near zero (Humane comp)
Base
Models ship by winter; 2027 Series B near 3x — comp: OpenAI bought io at $6.5B pre-product
Bull
Adcock repeat: ~10x to $55B on the Figure playbook

Base upside

3.0x

Bull upside

10.0x

Conviction

Driver:
Brett Adcock serial winner (Figure, Archer); Series A at a $5.5B valuation (2026); NVIDIA gigawatt-compute + AT&T partnerships; Align access
Risk:
Pre-product; $5.5B premium; models promised summer 2026 not yet shipped; dual-CEO risk; hardware has a true-zero tail (Humane comp)

Latest catalystHark Launches Free AI Assistant to Handle Tasks Before You Ask - TechRepublicOctober 8, 2026

Space / Defense

Loft Orbital

MOIC

3.6x

Current
$727.3K
Conservative
$363.6K
Base
$727.3K
Bull
$1.5M

Assumptions

Conservative
Next round fails to clear the internal mark; reverts to the $1B Series C (1.8x)
Base
MMRE's internal mark of $2B ahead of the next round holds (3.6x)
Bull
Next round prices well above the internal mark on sustained 65% growth

Base upside

1.0x

Bull upside

2.0x

Conviction

Driver:
$135M new bookings FY25; 65%+ rev growth; French military prime; UAE JV upsell; LMT/Leonardo DRS contracts; Space Force $237M small-sat vehicle; former DepSecDef on board
Risk:
MMRE's internal $2B mark runs ahead of the $1B Series C and a ~$609M secondary print; IPO timing; space sector cyclicality

Latest catalystLoft Orbital Joins $1B Space-Based AI Satellite Constellation - konsulteer.comSeptember 29, 2026

Venture Capital

Align Fund

MOIC

1.1x

Current
$275K
Conservative
$375K
Base
$875K
Bull
$1.5M

Assumptions

Conservative
Fund II settles near 1.5x; no repeat of Fund I
Base
Consumer book exits to strategics; ~3.5x on the blended position
Bull
Fund II repeats a Fund I-style power-law outcome; ~6x

Base upside

3.2x

Bull upside

5.5x

Conviction

Driver:
Consumer seed-to-scale playbook with strategic exits (Touchland to Church & Dwight, Billie to Edgewell); the co-invest channel behind Starface, Radar, Radiant and Hark
Risk:
Fund II may not replicate Fund I

Latest catalystAlign Ventures raises $125m second fund after string of successful exits - AltAssets Private Equity NewsAugust 3, 2026

Venture Capital

TGV Fund

MOIC

1.5x

Current
$450K
Conservative
$450K
Base
$750K
Bull
$1.2M

Assumptions

Conservative
Holds at today's 1.5x mark; no further markups
Base
Portfolio ARR compounds into priced rounds; ~2.5x
Bull
One power-law winner drives a ~4x fund

Base upside

1.7x

Bull upside

2.7x

Conviction

Driver:
Fund past the J-curve; early-stage AI software portfolio; the co-invest network behind MMRE's Figure AI and Erebor positions
Risk:
Limited portfolio visibility

Latest catalystJNTC to Invest 347 Billion Won in TGV Glass Substrate Plant - thelec.netSeptember 21, 2026

Consumer / F&B

Insomnia Cookies

MOIC

1.0x

Current
$50K
Conservative
$75K
Base
$150K
Bull
$350K

Assumptions

Conservative
Rollout slows; a secondary PE sale at a modest step-up (1.5x)
Base
Store count doubles by 2028 on PE capital (3x)
Bull
The full 1,800-store plan lands a strategic exit at QSR multiples (7x)

Base upside

3.0x

Bull upside

7.0x

Conviction

Driver:
350 → 1,800 stores; PE backing
Risk:
PE dilution; execution on 5x expansion

Latest catalystInsomnia Cookies, Mars scare up candy-centric cookies - Snack Food & Wholesale BakeryOctober 12, 2026

Nuclear / Deep Tech

Radiant

MOIC

1.0x

Current
$50K
Conservative
$50K
Base
$200K
Bull
$375K

Assumptions

Conservative
DOME slips past the 2028 Janus milestone; held flat at the $1.9B Series D
Base
Janus milestones met and first Equinix/Army units deploy; ~$7.6B (4x)
Bull
Hyperscaler fleet orders and an IPO at a nuclear premium; ~$14B (7.5x)

Base upside

4.0x

Bull upside

7.5x

Conviction

Driver:
Largest of five Army Janus awards (up to $750M, 15 reactors by 2030); Equinix $600M preorder; first to test at INL's DOME; a16z/Founders Fund/Chevron/IQT
Risk:
Pre-revenue; criticality not yet achieved; Janus milestones terminable at the Army's convenience; HALEU supply; more private capital means dilution

Latest catalystCentrus Signs Haleu Supply Contract For Radiant Microreactors - NucNetSeptember 9, 2026

Consumer / Beauty

Starface

MOIC

1.0x

Current
$50K
Conservative
$110K
Base
$145K
Bull
$180K

Assumptions

Conservative
PE-to-PE exit at ~3x revenue (2.2x)
Base
Strategic exit at ~4x 2028 revenue (2.9x)
Bull
Premium strategic exit at ~5x revenue (3.6x) — comp: Hero Cosmetics to Church & Dwight

Base upside

2.9x

Bull upside

3.6x

Conviction

Driver:
$265M EV at 2.7x revenue via the Astō majority buyout; the lip line proved the brand travels beyond patches
Risk:
Gen Z fickleness

Latest catalystStarface pimple patches drop to under $13 in Amazon deal today - Corpus Christi Caller-TimesOctober 12, 2026

Consumer / Beverage

Olipop

MOIC

2.1x

Current
$38.1K
Conservative
$27K
Base
$54K
Bull
$108K

Assumptions

Conservative
Poppi (now PepsiCo) price war compresses the multiple; exit below today's mark (1.5x)
Base
Steps to ~$2.6B on $400M of profitable revenue
Bull
Coke/Pepsi strategic buyout ~$5.3B; interest already reported

Base upside

1.4x

Bull upside

2.8x

Conviction

Driver:
$400M rev, profitable; 60% share; Coke/Pepsi interested
Risk:
Premium pricing; Poppi competition

Latest catalystCoca-Cola has a gut feeling it can take on Poppi and Olipop (KO:NYSE) - Seeking AlphaOctober 13, 2026

Retail Tech / RFID

Radar

MOIC

1.4x

Current
$71.1K
Conservative
$71.1K
Base
$175K
Bull
$500K

Assumptions

Conservative
Pipeline stalls; holds the $1B latest mark on AE and Gap alone
Base
Two or three late-stage pilots go fleet-wide; ~$2.5B (3.5x)
Bull
A top-tier retailer goes fleet-wide; category winner near $7B (10x)

Base upside

2.5x

Bull upside

7.0x

Conviction

Driver:
$135M signed fleet-wide (American Eagle, Gap); 1,000+ stores live; 99%+ item-level accuracy; $1B mark (May 2026) on a 30+ retailer pipeline
Risk:
Pipeline conversion risk; customer concentration; retail macro

Latest catalystChipless RFID: Radar-Based Identification Explained - WIoT GroupJune 29, 2026

Defense AI / Robotics

Scout AI

MOIC

1.0x

Current
$200K
Conservative
$200K
Base
$1M
Bull
$1.8M

Assumptions

Conservative
UxS option lapses; $100M cash runs into 2028; bridge at entry
Base
Army exercises part of the $150M UxS option (~Dec 2026); revenue steps toward $50M+; 2027 Series B near $1.9B (5x)
Bull
Anduril-adjacent re-rate toward ~$3.3B as the Fury platform scales

Base upside

5.0x

Bull upside

8.8x

Conviction

Driver:
Fury foundation model; $11M Yr-1 contracts (DARPA, Army); $100M Series A Apr 2026 — largest US defense-tech A, Align co-led; Army UxS option up to $150M decides ~Dec 2026
Risk:
Early-stage; defense procurement cycles; competitive (Anduril $60B)

Latest catalystScout AI's Fury Autonomous Vehicle Orchestrator - Defense and MunitionsMay 13, 2026

Consumer Health

Next Health

MOIC

1.0x

Current
$50K
Conservative
$50K
Base
$150K
Bull
$375K

Assumptions

Conservative
No qualified round; held at cost — structural protection returns capital, no equity upside
Base
Converts in a priced round near $200M as the clinic base matures (3x)
Bull
Health Nexus monetizes the member base; ~$500M on a platform multiple (7.5x)

Base upside

3.0x

Bull upside

7.5x

Conviction

Driver:
Largest branded longevity and functional-medicine footprint in the US — 20 clinics across 10 states with more in development; a membership model built on recurring revenue; strong patient reputation driving word-of-mouth growth
Risk:
Clinic roll-outs are capital-intensive and returns depend on new locations maturing; MMRE holds a convertible note, not priced equity; software-led longevity platforms are valued very differently from clinic networks

Latest catalystWellness Longevity Clinics: Next Health Pairs IV Therapy and Health Testing in One Visit - Trend HunterOctober 5, 2026

Financial Infrastructure

Erebor

MOIC

1.0x

Current
$150K
Conservative
$150K
Base
$525K
Bull
$1.2M

Assumptions

Conservative
Deposit growth stalls or banks reprice; held flat at the $9.5B round — capital back, not a floor
Base
Deposits compound toward $20-30B; IPO at a fintech multiple near $33B (3.5x)
Bull
The defense- and crypto-native bank at ~$76B - the SVB-shaped hole, unfilled

Base upside

3.5x

Bull upside

8.0x

Conviction

Driver:
Full OCC national charter (Feb 2026, the fastest approval for an insured depository in 25 years) is a real moat; $2.125B raised at a $9.5B valuation (Erebor overview, Oct 2026); deposits $0→$4.6B by end-July; $100M+ ARR; full stack across ABL and venture lending (incl. GPU/compute equipment finance), fund finance, ~5% managed treasury, a 24/7 FX desk and stablecoin rails; Luckey/Lonsdale, 8VC, Lux, Valor, Human Capital, a16z, Haun, SV Angel
Risk:
~2.1x deposits / ~95x ARR — priced as tech, not as a bank; credit exposure to pre-revenue nuclear and crypto borrowers; a concentrated depositor base is the SVB failure mode — partly mitigated by a ≤50% loan-to-deposit target, excess liquidity in short-dated governments and $285M pass-through deposit insurance, which protects depositors but not equity

Latest catalystErebor Bank Deposits Reach $4.06 Billion After Second-Quarter Surge - TOKENPOSTOctober 6, 2026

Conservative-, base- and bull-case figures reflect MMRE Investments' internal estimates of potential outcomes, not guarantees. Private-market positions are illiquid and carried at estimated marks that may differ materially from any price ultimately realized; projected values are not guarantees of realizable value. Past performance is not indicative of future results.